Valuation
Every day I hear from the "experts" on CNBC-TV and the radio gurus that the way to buy stocks is find value. One man's Rembrandt is another man's connect-the-dots and fill in the spaces. Valuation is like beauty. It is in the mind of the beholder.
If valuation is the key to buying stocks then there should be some kind of a formula to determine what is undervalued and over-valued. In every industry there are formulas for standards of performance. For cars we want to know the zero to 60 miles per hour in how many seconds. For soap we want it to be 99 and 44/100 percent pure. For alcoholic beverages it could be how long it has been aged. And on and on.
Yet in the stock market we have no hard and fast set of rules by which to judge a company performance. Ah, and there's the rub! No matter how good a company performance might be it may have no bearing on the price performance of the stock. You can find good companies that are within a sector that is doing poorly and yet one company can be making huge profits and sales, but the stock price is going nowhere. There need not be any correlation.
When you are in a bull market almost every stock goes up - even the dogs. When you are in a bear market almost every stock goes down - even the best ones. We ended an 18 year bull market in 2000 and almost without exception every stock headed for the exit.
Bull and bear markets follow relatively standard patterns of about 16 to 18 years up and 16 to 18 years down and the valuations go right along with them. If you own stocks or especially index funds during the bear periods you will be lucky to have broken even at the end of the 16-year cycle. Cash in your mattress will outperform market returns while the bear is in charge.
During these bear times there will be periods when the market will have a nice advance such as the one we saw start in 2003. These intermediate rises can ultimately bring many investors back into the market only to lose it when the rally is over and true valuation returns.
One valuation measurement for the overall market is the Price/Earnings ratio of the S&P500 Index. The median number for the historic purposes has been around 14. Today it is running about 21 which is considered high. When bear markets end the P/E can be about 6 or 8. There are other factors to be considered when buying any stock or fund, but the one thing that is most important is to have an exit strategy. Without one you will give back your profits.
No one knows exactly where the top or bottom of a market move will be. Knowing conventional valuations is one tool to help your buying and selling decisions.
Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.
Copyright 2005
More Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
Financial Crime
Congress recently passed another new law that is supposed to outlaw financial crime. Corporate officers will be sent to jail for "cooking the books" as it is called.
Mid-Cap Stocks: Asset Class with an Identity Crisis
Much like the middle child, mid-cap stocks have long struggled to find their identity. Carved out from the upper echelons of the small caps and the lower end of the large caps, the mid-cap sector has a rough definition of stock with a market capitalization of greater than $2 billion, but less than $10 billion.
How to Find Value in No Load Mutual Fund Investing
What are you thinking when it comes to your no load mutual fund selections? Are you saving pennies and sacrificing dollars?Are you spending your time looking at expense ratios, analyzing Morningstar ratings and searching for funds with low fees and no 12b1 charges? If you are like most people, you know these things in and out. You've spent hours evaluating them, and your chosen mutual funds cost little to purchase and maintain.
The Cub; II
We keep hearing about this bear market and that the bottom is "in" or "very close" so we should be invested in these bargain basement prices to take advantage of the next bull so we won't lose out on the expected huge profits.This is not a big bear market - yet.
Fools Gold
The stock market has been in an up trend for more than a year. Almost everyone is feeling good and many believe we are back in the old bull market with the previous high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average just about to be broken.
Invest, Be Wrong, and Make Money in the Stock Market
I have been trading for several decades and was an exchange member and floor trader for 17 years. You learn fast there or you go broke in a hurry.
Eternal Sunshine
There is a current movie entitled "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind". It is about a man who has had a painful love affair and will do anything to rid his mind of those pain thoughts of a former love.
How Eating Bitumen Made Me a Better Trader
Trading is a fascinating activity.There are so many layers to it.
Getting Even
I know there are a lot of you out there who would like to "get even" with the stock market. Many are on the diet of "I hope, I hope".
Market Globalization
Just 30 years ago the stock market was a shadow of what it is today. There were many fewer shareholders and the daily volume was a fraction of what it is at present.
An Old Proverb for Investing
"If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there."This very much applies to the your retirement plans especially if you are investing in the stock market.
The Secret Method to Selecting a Winning Trading System
Every successful trader has a winning system. There are of course, as many systems out there, as there are traders.
8 Penny Stocks to Avoid
There are many good penny stock investments available, which could turn a small amount of capital into a small fortune very quickly. However, to discover these you need to know what to look for and what to avoid.
The 401(K): How The Insider Has Stolen Your Retirement!
Mutual funds were moderately successful in creating a presence in the stock market until the advent of the investment retirement account and in particular the 401(k). Corporate insiders persuaded the federal government to allow for the 401(k) in lieu of offering employees the traditional pension.
Low Tide
When you stand on the ocean shore and watch the waves breaking you might become aware that the tide is coming in or going out. It is a slow process to watch the water retreat and when it finally gets to its lowest point it is almost impossible to tell if it has stopped or will retreat further.
Its Better
Question: How does it get better when it gets worse?Last week we had a jobs report from Washington that there were fewer jobs created than they had anticipated, but the stock market took that as good news and the DOW had a strong rally. WOW! The bad news somehow turned into good news because the unemployment rate dropped one tenth of one percent.
Price to Earnings Ratio - P/E
After finding the price of a particular stock, usually the next number everyone looks at is the P/E ratio.P/E is the ratio of a company's share price to its per-share earnings.
Rebalance And Diversify
The stock market has not been very kind to your investments lately. Your broker knows this so you may have received a call from him suggesting it is time to 'rebalance and diversify' your portfolio.
Trading For A Living - Part 1
There can't be many traders who haven't at least considered the idea of telling the boss what they think of him, throwing it all in and going off to trade the stock market for a living. It's a big risk financially, and that uncertainty is what stops most from jumping ship.
Good Stock Market Tip; Good Return!
Forget making a profit; instead focus on the income provided from your stock portfolio. That's right! Forget making a profit.