Overseas Investing: Going Against the Mainstream
TOO OFTEN, INVESTORS SIMPLY CHOOSE TO follow the crowd. This strategy works in the short term, but can lead to difficulty in the longer haul. It also prevents investors from finding the great opportunities that experts have missed.
Most of the time, when the market is rising merrily, following the crowd can be profitable, even if gains are only average. For those who are less adept at making market decisions, following the right crowd may even demonstrate wisdom. But eventually, one's lack of independence takes dominance. The real problem arises at the turning points. When the market has been moving up, and suddenly takes a major downward shift, investors must be able to think for themselves and adapt. Those who cannot are left holding the bag. Just as important is the ability to recognize an upturn when everyone else believes there is no hope. Last April, those who stayed on the sidelines missed great opportunities. Luckily, our readers were able to achieve excellent gains. Of course, no one can perfectly time the market, but it is helpful to recognize when turns are possible, or even likely.
Similarly, when picking stocks, it is important to see past the opinions of "experts" and recognize real value. In recent years, "Wall Street" has become more of a marketing machine than a center for careful analysis.
Over time, we can learn who the few viable analysts are, but in the meantime, most of us are almost better off ignoring the salesmen in the media.
Let's look at how following the crowd works. Quite recently, an election surprise in India led to a market crash. The crowds who couldn't understand the results exited India's markets in droves, driving them down significantly.
This is a clear opportunity for investors. India has tremendous potential. Yet, those who simply follow, without looking beyond the immediate news, will miss that reality. Our analysis of India's politics is that everyone is now on board for free markets. There is no longer a great impetus for socialism. Therefore, a victory by the Congress Party doesn't foretell an effort to disrupt the strong economy. It merely indicates that many are satisfied with life, but probably more secular than the previous ruling party. The reaction by investors here is confused. Clearly, the fact that the Communist Party's support for the new government may cause some concern, but the leading parties in the new government have long-since abandoned any socialist leanings. Among the first meetings after the new election was a summit where it was decided that Congress would continue on the path, despite objections from the left. No party that wishes to be re-elected will discard a successful economic strategy. Thus, we strongly believe that the success of the Indian economy is safe.
Investing in India is still not easy. A limited number of shares of Indian companies are available on U.S. exchanges, each carrying relatively high P/E's. Countless smaller companies, likely with better prospects are available on local exchanges, but purchasing those is costly for the small investor; we must look for more practical ways to approach these markets. One useful method is to invest through diversified closed end funds selling at discounts, such as the Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund (IIF). These fund managers have better access to local research and markets, and have people on the ground to evaluate the situation on a daily basis. A similar method is to buy Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's), which may be available for some nations or regions.
At the same time India's market fell, the Brazilian market took a heavy hit. While we are still optimistic about the Brazilian economy, we believe the risk factors there may be stronger. Firstly, the leader of the government is unabashedly socialist, despite the fact that they have recognized the importance of foregoing socialism to keep the economy strong. However, once the economy strengthens, it remains unknown if Lula da Silva will pursue foolhardy anti-economic policies. Secondly, there is some uncertainty regarding Argentina's ability to maintain stability, and another collapse in Argentina would again draw Brazil into the slump. Thus, while we are willing to invest small amounts in Brazil, we feel the situation in India is more secure, and better prepared for long-term growth.
Diversification is, as always, a good strategy to help protect against uncertainty. Being diversified across countries is also wise, even though international diversification has lost some of its impact in these days of globalization. Still, if some money is placed in markets that are less dependent on our own, we stand a better chance of being protected in times of U.S. weakness.
"The crowd" seems to feel more comfortable investing "at home" regardless of where the real opportunities are, and where the risks may be. Instead, we should look worldwide, seeking to reduce risk and increase returns. If, for example, it is momentarily safer to invest in Australia than in the U.S., that's where we should put our dollars. The U.S. remains attractive at amount of investment dollars in that large powerhouse economy, but are less excited about 2005 there.
Keep investing, and keep alert. In times like these, changes may take place more unexpectedly than normal, but we can adapt if we remain vigilant and avoid following the crowd.
To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson's Investment Management services, visit http://www.valueview.net
Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor's Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.
More Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
Bollinger Bands Strategies
The Bollinger Band theory is designed to depict the volatility of a stock. It is quite simple, being composed of a simple moving average, and its upper and lower "bands" that are 2 standard deviations away.
Pension Plans
If you have a pension plan at work you will want to read this and if you don't you will still want to because it affects your retirement account.There are two kinds of formal retirement plans that are set in place by employers.
Top 25 Growth Funds
On Monday, November 25, 2000 Investor's Business Daily listed on page B1 the Top 25 Growth Mutual Funds for the last 36 months along with their performance for the year 2000 to date. Only four showed a profit this year of 21% and the other three had increases of 12%, 5%, and 5%.
The Holy Grail (of Investment)
Every year I go to the Money Show in Orlando, Florida. Thousands attend.
Option Trading Basics
Options trading can increase the profits you make when trading Stocks if you understand how to use them and know what you are doing. Options can be a very useful tool that the average investor can use to enhance their returns.
Price Targets
Every day in any financial publication you will find the Wall Street mavens giving their predictions on many stocks. It was issued here and should go there.
What is a Trading Plan - and Why You Need One?
How do you make money without picking tops and bottoms?I am glad you asked..
Different Types of Mutual Funds
This is a guide to the different types of mutual funds. When it comes to investing in mutual funds, investors have literally thousands of choices.
Stock Options Trading Strategies - Lean
Professional stock options traders use the term lean to refer to one's perception about the directional strength of the stock. When you own a stock option and intend to hold it for a period of time, you are aware that you will probably be holding it while it goes up and while it goes down.
Investing in Dividend Paying Stocks
I was recently interviewed for a press release through a financial question and answer format. One of the questions asked of me in the interview was:Where do you think the stock market is headed over the next five years?My Answer!Charles M.
Its A Bull, Its A Bear, Its Suptertrader!
The higher the market goes the more confusing are the "experts". In the September 14 issue of Investor's Business Daily newspaper we find the great prognosticators such as:Sheldon Jacobs, editor of No-Load Fund Investor newsletter quoted that he is recommending having more cash in your portfolio.
Dividend Paying Stocks
I would like to share with the reader an article printed in the financial section of U.S.
More Window Dressing
Two weeks ago I wrote about what the Securities and Exchange Commission was doing to regulate the mutual fund industry to help the small investor, the "poor folks". It really added up to zero.
Financial Crime
Congress recently passed another new law that is supposed to outlaw financial crime. Corporate officers will be sent to jail for "cooking the books" as it is called.
The Skinny on Mutual Fund Investing
Mutual fund investing is a lot like Thai cooking. Everyone has heard of it, most know a little something about it, but very few actually know how to do it and do it well.
Protectionism
First let's see what protectionism is. According to Mr.
Long Term Financial Vehicles
Investing in long-term financial vehicles give you the most gains but it also puts your funds at greater risk. There is much truth to the saying, "there is no gain if there is no risk".
Trapeze Artist - Swinging with the Stock Market
When we go to the circus we see a trapeze artist working on a high wire or swing either alone or with other athletes. They know what they are doing because of constant practice, but every once in a while there can be a mistake, even a small one that can cause one of them to fall.
Mousetrap
The spring-loaded rat catcher is the ultimate low-tech device invented more than 100 years ago and remains the best demouser in the world. It is so simple anyone can master it and best of all you can keep on using it year in and year out.
The Stock Market Investor's Worst Enemy
Every stock market investor faces one primal enemy. An enemy so perverse, it will drive thousands of investors from the stock market through its ability to defeat even the most practiced investment strategy.