Picking Mutual Funds to Outperform the Market
With over 6,000 mutual funds available, it may be tempting to pick funds from a popular star or index rating system. Savvy investors, however, balance multiple factors in their selection process. Ratings represent only the historical performance of funds and cannot predict the future. Performance consistency, management skill, and expense limitations are among the many factors that influence a fund's prospects. Each must be carefully evaluated to improve your chances of finding a fund to outperform the market.
Create a plan
Define your financial goals. Are you saving for retirement? Putting money aside for a home? Funding a child's college education? Your answer will have significant implications on your choice of mutual funds. More time gives you flexibility to use an aggressive approach. Immediate needs call for safety and capital preservation. Take careful consideration of your tolerance for risk. If the market dips, at what point would you lose sleep? Is it a 5% drop? 10% drop? An asset allocation plan will balance your portfolio and maximize return for your level of acceptable risk.
Dismiss recent results
Past performance is no indicator of future results. No truer words could ever be spoken and they are included in every mutual fund advertisement. But it's extremely difficult to ignore these numbers which the fund companies conveniently place in big bold letters - immediately above the fine print warning us. Nothing is more attractive than a fund with a great record, especially given the dismal performance in the market.
Past performance can provide a good starting point, but nothing more. In fact, past performance predicts losers better than the winners. A 1998 study from fund-tracking firm Morningstar, demonstrated the top fund performers rarely hold their spot on the charts. The study also concludes bottom performers rarely did anything but continue to sink. Never assume the past will repeat itself, yet, ignore a fund's historical record at your own peril. Avoid the perennial losers.
Seek consistency
Evaluate a mutual fund's performance beyond just the recent year. Any fund can get lucky, but it's the rare firm that prove themselves year after year. Examining a fund's long term performance can answer the question of consistency. If the performance was good, was it repeatable due to skill - or merely a spike due to dumb luck?
Watch for a solid record of returns, rather than funds showing spurts of great years followed by fits of lousy ones. Compare the fund's returns to a relevant benchmark index, (large-cap vs. S&P 500, small-cap to the Russell Index, etc.) Solid funds should not only consistently beat the benchmarks, they should also beat their peers.
Seek good managers
Always review the experience and performance of the fund's managers. When you buy a mutual fund, you are actually investing in the experience, skill, and savvy that the manager brings to the table. When the manager leaves, the fund performance generally goes with him. How many years has the manager been leading the fund? The longer (if generating strong results), the better. And keep an eye out for the gurus. The industry's better managers are well-respected, high-regarded, and often quoted in the press. You'll find multiple articles and even manager profiles published in the popular financial magazines and newspapers.
Think cheap
Check out the fund's cost of ownership. While you can not predict a fund's performance, you can control the ongoing expenses. Since expenses impact your ability to grow investments over time, select a fund with low costs. Check the expense ratio, sales fees, trading costs, and 12b-1 fees charged to cover the marketing, distribution and sales. Everything counts against your bottom line - keep it small as possible. When possible, choose funds with expenses less than their category average.
Taxes are often overlooked and can substantially reduce your after-tax gain unless investing within a tax-deferred, retirement account. Avoid funds with large distributions (capital gain payments) by searching for funds with low turnover. Since buying and selling stock incurs transaction costs, lower turnover translates to lower expenses and lower capital gains' taxes. Fund managers who seek to boost returns through repeatedly buying and selling securities are no friend of yours.
Putting it all together
Picking mutual funds is a challenging task. You will need to spend time learning, researching, investigating, analyzing, and comparing. The key is to develop your own methodology using some of the components listed here along with your own judgment and decision capabilities. Review your investment plan and fund selection criteria at least once a year. Make sure the plan still matches your goals and the funds match your expectations.
It's your money. It's your future. Take your time. Get it right.
Tim Olson
TheAssetAdvisor.comMr. Olson is the editor of The Asset Advisor, a financial investment service providing proven strategies for no-load mutual fund investors. He brings 26 years of education and experience from Stanford University, Ernst & Young financial consulting, personal wealth management, and venture capital investing.
Subscribe to our free newsletterMore Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
The Secret Art of Backtesting
If you have not back tested your trading system, you might as well trade with your eyes close. In fact, whatever technical analysis criterion you use to trade with, be it moving averages, candle sticks, volatility breakouts, fibonacci retracements or any other trading system you have devised you're going to need to back test your trading system thoroughly and objectively in order to remove any possible doubt about it's capability.
Ignore Stock Market Talking Heads
You should ignore analysts on TV, the radio, the newspaper and all other TALKING HEADS when it comes to investing! What stocks do they talk about? - The same old group, every day of every year - Why? Because they don't know any better, they are sheep like the general public, repeating what every economic textbook says and every other economist tells them to say. Everyday, the same companies are highlighted on the evening news -WHY?They aren't going anywhere.
How to Evaluate Load vs. No Load Mutual Funds
If you have been dealing with mutual funds for any length of time, you undoubtedly have faced the question of which is better: Load Funds or No Load Funds. If you are new to investing, "load" simply refers to the commission paid to the broker selling the fund.
VIX
No, this is not a symbol for some Latin number. The Wall Street mavens talk about this market timing device as if they knew how to use it to determine which way the stock market is going - up or down.
Stock Market Education; Day Trading for Beginnners; How to Pick Stocks
The trading method you employ to approach the stock market can make a big difference in your results.Stock trading is a very competitive field and in order to succeed you need to FOCUS on a set of simple strategies that you can implement without hesitation.
The Holy Grail (of Investment)
Every year I go to the Money Show in Orlando, Florida. Thousands attend.
Inverted Interest Rates
Inverted interest rates? What's that? Who cares? Even if you don't understand what Mr. Greenspan is saying (and almost nobody does) it is important to you because it could mean you might lose you job next year or have to cut back on some of the things you want to acquire.
Perfect Storm
Having lived aboard a sailboat for 2 years I was stricken when I saw the movie "PERFECT STORM". I know these are things you want to avoid at all costs.
The Secret to More Winning Trades is as Simple as Avoiding This Common Mistake
If you're a normal human being, your need to feel good about yourself probably causes you to sell your winners too soon - and -- your need to avoid feelings of regret, causes you to hang on to your losers too long.At one time or another, we're all guilty of letting our emotions dictate our investment decisions.
You Wont Like This
Why? Because I am going to shatter your conventional wisdom as I have many times in previous columns about the lies that Wall Street continues to tell you. This time we are going to go deeper into the economy to unearth the truth about lies the politicians are telling you.
How To Pick A Mutual Fund
Mutual funds by definition are a mixed bag of stocks, bonds and a little cash. Their price per share is the NAV, Net Asset Value of the total amount of money in the mutual fund divided by the number of shares.
Trading Baskets II: The Crapolio, A Roll of the Dice in the Stock Market
In a previously written article, we expanded the use of the term "Trading Baskets" to include stocks from different sectors or industries. Now I want to share with you an approach to day trading or swing trading that I had some success with back in the wild and woolly, pinnacle days of day trading that may still work today.
Overvalued & Underbought
With all the bad news that has been dumped upon the economy for some reason the stock market is going up. Why?The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has just set up new guidelines for core earnings.
How Covered Calls Turned a Trader Around
Sidney felt sick as she looked at her latest OptionsXpress trading statement. In just 8 months, she had managed to turn her $120,000 account balance into less than $70,000.
Stock Market Investments
If there is one term over-used when talking about making investments in the stock market I would think that term would be: buy low, sell high.Buy low? Sell high? How low is low and how high is high? I like the term buy low, sell dear, much better! But better still are the terms buy and hold, and dollar-cost-averaging (buying the same stock at different prices through the years).
My Stock - Right or Wrong
We all know the expression, "My country, right or wrong", but have you ever thought about the stocks or mutual fund you own and said to yourself, "My stock - right or wrong" and held on to your position even as you saw your hard-earned money disappearing?This is the Buy N Hold strategy and, in case you haven't noticed, lost from 40% to 60% and more of investors' money from 2000 to 2003. Fortunately, for the past year stock markets around the world have gone up and folks have recovered about 25% to 30% from those low numbers.
How We Eluded The Bear Of 2000
The date October 13, 2000 will forever be embedded in my mind. It was the day after our mutual fund trend tracking indicator had broken its long-term trend line and I sold 100% of my clients' invested positions (and my own) and moved the proceeds to the safety of money market accounts.
Trading vs Investing
I often hear from people, "I don't trade. I invest.
Shadow Bull
As one of my regular readers you know I have been a stock market bear for the past 2 years and have encouraged everyone to put their money into a money market account or a short-term no-load bond fund and for the more adventurous what is called a bear mutual fund that goes up when the market goes down. Just being in cash as outlined in my book would have saved 40% or more of your money.
Oil Stocks As A Long Term Investment
The demand for world oil is increasing while world reserves are decreasing. This is a known fact.