A New Wall Street Line Dance
It matters not what lines, numbers, indices, or gurus you worship, you just can't know where the stock market is going or when it will change direction. Too much investor time and analytical effort is wasted trying to predict course corrections... even more is squandered comparing portfolio Market Values with a handful of unrelated indices and averages. If we reconcile in our minds that we can't predict the future (or change the past), we can move through the uncertainty more productively. Let's simplify portfolio performance evaluation by using information that we don't have to speculate about, and which is related to our own personal investment programs.
Every December, with visions of sugarplums dancing in their heads, investors begin to scrutinize their performance, formulate coulda's and shoulda's, and determine what to try next year. It's an annual, masochistic, right of passage. My year-end vision is different. I see a bunch of Wall Street fat cats, ROTF and LOL, while investors (and their alphabetically correct advisors) determine what to change, sell, buy, re-allocate, or adjust to make the next twelve months behave better financially than the last. What happened to that old fashioned emphasis on long-term progress toward specific goals? The use of Issue Breadth and 52-week High/Low statistics for navigation; and cyclical analysis (Peak to Peak, etc.) and economic realities as performance expectation barometers makes a lot more personal sense. And when did it become vogue to think of Investment Portfolios as sprinters in a twelve-month race with a nebulous array of indices and averages? Why are the masters of the universe rolling on the floor in laughter? They can visualize your annual performance agitation ritual producing fee generating transactions in all conceivable directions. An unhappy investor is Wall Street's best friend, and by emphasizing short-term results and creating a superbowlesque environment, they guarantee that the vast majority of investors will be unhappy about something, all of the time.
Your portfolio should be as unique as you are, and I contend that a portfolio of individual securities rather than a shopping cart full of one-size-fits-all consumer products is much easier to understand and to manage. You just need to focus on two longer-range objectives:
- (1) growing productive Working Capital, and
- (2) increasing Base Income
Let's develop an "all you need to know" chart that will help you manage your way to investment success (goal achievement) in a low failure rate, unemotional, environment. The chart will have four data lines, and your portfolio management objective will be to keep three of them moving upward through time. Note that a separate record of deposits and withdrawals should be maintained. If you are paying fees or commissions separately from your transactions, consider them withdrawals of Working Capital. If you don't have specific selection criteria and profit taking guidelines, develop them.
Line One is labeled "Working Capital", and an average annual growth rate between 5% and 12% would be a reasonable target, depending on Asset Allocation. [An average cannot be determined until after the end of the second year, and a longer period is recommended to allow for compounding.] This upward only line (Did you raise an eyebrow?) is increased by dividends, interest, deposits, and "realized" capital gains and decreased by withdrawals and "realized" capital losses. A new look at some widely accepted year-end behaviors might be helpful at this point. Offsetting capital gains with losses on good quality companies becomes suspect because it always results in a larger deduction from Working Capital than the tax payment itself. Similarly, avoiding securities that pay dividends is at about the same level of absurdity as marching into your boss's office and demanding a pay cut. There are two basic truths at the bottom of this:
- (1) You just can't make too much money, and
- (2) there's no such thing as a bad profit
Line Two reflects "Base Income", and it too will always move upward if you are managing your Asset Allocation properly. The only exception would be a 100% Equity Allocation, where the emphasis is on a more variable source of Base Income... the dividends on a constantly changing stock portfolio. Line Three reflects historical trading results and is labeled "Net Realized Capital Gains". This total is most important during the early years of portfolio building and it will directly reflect both the security selection criteria you use, and the profit taking rules you employ. If you build a portfolio of Investment Grade securities, and apply a 5% diversification rule (always use cost basis), you will rarely have a downturn in this monitor of both your selection criteria and your profit taking discipline. Any profit is always better than any loss and, unless your selection criteria is really too conservative, there will always be something out there worth buying with the proceeds. Three 8% singles will produce a larger number than one 25% home run, and which is easier to obtain? Obviously, the growth in Line Three should accelerate in rising markets (measured by issue breadth numbers). The Base Income just keeps growing because Asset Allocation is also based on the cost basis of each security class! (Note that an unrealized gain or loss is as meaningless as the quarter-to-quarter movement of a market index. This is a decision model, and good decisions should produce net realized income.)
One other important detail No matter how conservative your selection criteria, a security or two is bound to become a loser. Don't judge this by Wall Street popularity indicators, tealeaves, or analyst opinions. Let the fundamentals (profits, S & P rating, dividend action, etc) send up the red flags. Market Value just can't be trusted for a bite-the-bullet decision... but it can help. This brings us to Line Four, a reflection of the change in "Total Portfolio Market Value" over the course of time. This line will follow an erratic path, constantly staying below "Working Capital" (Line One). If you observe the chart after a market cycle or two, you will see that lines One through Three move steadily upward regardless of what line Four is doing! BUT, you will also notice that the "lows" of Line Four begin to occur above earlier highs. It's a nice feeling since Market Value movements are not, themselves, controllable.
Line Four will rarely be above Line One, but when it begins to close the cap, a greater movement upward in Line Three (Net Realized Capital Gains) should be expected. In 100% income portfolios, it is possible for Market Value to exceed Working Capital by a slight margin, but it is more likely that you have allowed some greed into the portfolio and that profit taking opportunities are being ignored. Don't ever let this happen. Studies show rather clearly that the vast majority of unrealized gains are brought to the Schedule D as realized losses... and this includes potential profits on income securities. And, when your portfolio hits a new high watermark, look around for a security that has fallen from grace with the S & P rating system and bite that bullet.
What's different about this approach, and why isn't it more high tech? There is no mention of an index, an average, or a comparison with anything at all, and that's the way it should be. This method of looking at things will get you where you want to be without the hype that Wall Street uses to create unproductive transactions, foolish speculations, and incurable dissatisfaction. It provides a valid use for portfolio Market Value, but far from the judgmental nature Wall Street would like. It's use in this model, as both an expectation clarifier and an action indicator for the portfolio manager, on a personal level, should illuminate your light bulb. Most investors will focus on Line Four out of habit, or because they have been brainwashed by Wall Street into thinking that a lower Market Value is always bad and a higher one always good. You need to get outside of the "Market Value vs. Anything" box if you hope to achieve your goals. Cycles rarely fit the January to December mold, and are only visible in rear view mirrors anyway... but their impact on your new Line Dance is totally your tune to name.
The Market Value Line is a valuable tool. If it rises above working capital, you are missing profit opportunities. If it falls, start looking for buying opportunities. If Base Income falls, so has:
- (1) the quality of your holdings, or
- (2) you have changed your asset allocation for some (possibly inappropriate) reason, etc
Have a nice change! Author Bio
Steve Selengut
sanserve@aol.com
800-245-0494
www.sancoservices.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
Article Source: http://www.ArticleGeek.com - Free Website Content
More Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
Advisory Service for You?
It depends on your level of understanding of the market and the amount of money you have.If you a sophisticated investor with a substantial amount invested you are probably already receiving more than one.
The Right Mutual Funds For Baby Boomers
If you are a baby boomer, time is not on your side. Many baby boomers see retirement age fast approaching with little to nothing in the way of retirement assets that will allow them to actually retire and live a comfortable lifestyle.
The Seven Mistakes All Novice Traders Make and How to Correct Them
We learnt the following the hard way! If any of these things applies to you, don't worry - there is an easy solution!MISTAKE ONELack of Knowledge and No PlanIt amazes us that some people expect to trade the stock market successfully without any effort. Yet if they want to take up golf, for example, they will happily take some lessons or at least read a book before heading out onto the course.
The Exclusive Club of Large Caps
Picture one of those clubs where only the real heavyweights need apply. In the library the old aristocrats, General Motors and JP Morgan, are dozing in their leather chairs.
Risk Control
Everything you invest in has risk so you want to do your research before you put your money on the line.For example, when McDonald's opens a new restaurant (please, don't call it a hamburger joint) they will investigate as many of the relevant facts as possible.
Mutual Fund Ball and Chain
The broker told me not to sell because the mutual fund I owned had a 2% redemption fee and they would penalize me if I did.I got to thinking about it and did some simple math to see what that would cost me if I sold.
What Does it Take to be a Stock Trader?
It takes a total mental commitment to the task. It becomes a complete way of life.
True Investment Road Maps
If you don't know where you are going any road will get there. After you get there you might not like where you ended up.
How To Beat The Mutual Fund Companies At Their Own Game
You'd have had to be living on a desert island with no TV, newspaper or internet connection to have missed hearing about the great mutual fund scandal of 2003.The issue was that some mutual fund companies allowed certain hedge funds to engage in after-hours trading, sometimes incorrectly referred to as market timing.
Discover the Retirement Breakthrough the Federal Government Created for You - The Roth IRA!
If you don't know what a Roth IRA is then stop everything, print this article and read it carefully as this will certainly be the most valuable information you read this year. This next retirement account is to your net worth what light bulb was to electricity.
Discipline
One of the great "secrets" of successful people is discipline and it doesn't make any difference whether it is manufacturing, processing, servicing or investing in the stock market.Before you can have that discipline you must have a successful plan and stick with it.
Traders, Defend Against the Dreaded Death Spiral.
It has often been said that there is only two ways to get hurt really bad on a stock trade, getting caught in a "death spiral" by not using DTM: Decisive Trade Management in the way of stop loses and having a stock halted on you. Halts you have zero control over.
Dont Fight The Fed
One of the great truisms of Wall Street is "Don't fight the Fed". For the long term investors this has resulted in greater profits.
The Cub; II
We keep hearing about this bear market and that the bottom is "in" or "very close" so we should be invested in these bargain basement prices to take advantage of the next bull so we won't lose out on the expected huge profits.This is not a big bear market - yet.
Top 25 Growth Funds
On Monday, November 25, 2000 Investor's Business Daily listed on page B1 the Top 25 Growth Mutual Funds for the last 36 months along with their performance for the year 2000 to date. Only four showed a profit this year of 21% and the other three had increases of 12%, 5%, and 5%.
Why the Majority Fail at Stock Investing
The gleam and bright lights of Wall Street lure in many new investors each year, only to send them home crying to their friends and family. Why do so many people fail when it comes to the stock market? The reason is very simple: Hard work! Most people are looking for a quick buck or a fast path to riches.
Why Buy and Hold?
Since I can remember, and that's a long time ago, the Wall Street brokerage companies, mavens and mutual fund managers have been exhorting the mantra of Buy and Hold for all your investments. There have been erudite studies published that this is the only way to go.
On Line Stock Trading: Small Cap & Micro Stocks Go Up and Down - How Can You Profit?
Success in small cap & micro cap stock trading like with any other business in life comes from being able to see the big picture and from paying attention to the small details.Let's say for example that you are a business owner and you have a jewelry store on a given street just like the guy in the other corner does, but still the other guy is making 5 times more profits than you are only because he's doing something different.
Attitude Is [Almost] Everything
I often play a little game with myself when I have to go shopping; to the post office or on other errands.Sometimes I will just go about my business and make little comment or eye contact with the person serving me.
Market Globalization
Just 30 years ago the stock market was a shadow of what it is today. There were many fewer shareholders and the daily volume was a fraction of what it is at present.