401K-itis
Are you one of those many people who dread reading their 401K statements? You have been watching it decline for about 2 years and are wondering if will ever stop. Just about everyone says the market will come back. Brokers say you are in for the long haul so don't worry. Any account that drops to a 50% loss has to go up 100% to get "even" and that is a very difficult phenomenon. If you have an 80% loss as has already occurred in the Nasdaq you would need a 400% rally to get "even". At 90% you have to see a 900% rise to that mythical "even".
Buy and Hold has been preached so long and so loudly that everyone believes it. As Adolph Hitler said when you tell a lie tell a big one. Wall Street has been screaming this one down the throats of investors for so long it has become conventional wisdom. Look at your 401K today and compare it to 2 years ago and tell me you believe in Buy and Hold. Common sense will not allow it.
Every broker has been taught that market timing doesn't work. Yes, they teach them that and they have been good students. The problem is they have had a bad teacher. Within the funds you now own the fund managers buy and SELL many times during the year because there is a time to sell. Selling is the key to successful stock market investing.
A friend mine came to me with his wife's 401K from United Airlines. It is composed of 8 Fidelity mutual funds. The employee can pick any one or more. Since the first of the year six of the eight are down from 3% to 27% (average 10.77%) and the other two were up an average of 3%. The two that are up are fixed income funds otherwise known as bond funds. If you have a 401K, IRA or SEP or almost any mutual funds the only place to preserve your capital during this secular bear market is in a bond fund - a no-load bond fund. Do NOT pay commission for these. And there are many of them.
For years Wall Street has condemned those of us who use market timing. Well, you can call me what you want, but I will have my money when the Buy and Holders are broke.
Stock mutual funds do not work in a long-term bear market. Mutual funds, as we have known them for the past 20 years, are dead. You now have only two choices within your retirement account for your money - a bond fund or a plain money market account. Don't cry that you will only make 5% on your money. Think about the 20% to 40% you will not lose. According to Lipper 99% of U.S. equity funds lost money in the second quarter. I have been telling investors for years - cash is a position.
Enronitis broke thousands of people because they would not (could not) sell as the stock broke down. Don't let 401K-itis break you.
Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.
Copyright 2005
More Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
Bottoms Ups
If you have talked to a stock broker or financial planner in the last few days I will bet they all agree that there are some great bargains out there and now is the time to start buying in anticipation that the market will go back up. You will also find agreement from the talking heads on CNBC and those talk radio station stock mavens.
Stock Options Trading Strategies - Lean
Professional stock options traders use the term lean to refer to one's perception about the directional strength of the stock. When you own a stock option and intend to hold it for a period of time, you are aware that you will probably be holding it while it goes up and while it goes down.
The I Word is Coming to a Town Near You
Hello Inflation, it has been awhile, I see you on your way back again. Inflation? What inflation? Oh things like; Energy, diesel fuel, Aviation Fuel, Gasoline, Natural Gas, Milk, Wheat, Corn, Beef, Poultry, Hogs, Soy Beans, Building materials, paper, housing, Auto Prices, Health Care, Insurance, etc.
The Club
Yesterday I received my monthly issue of MONEY magazine. This issue has the special feature called "The Ultimate Investment Club" that highlights their picks for the top mutual fund managers.
Smart Day Trading Strategies to Help You Make Money in the Stock Market
Stock trading can be a very profitable activity. You can make big amounts of cash in a short period of time.
Play another Day
Money management starts with protecting your capital, realizing profits and cutting losses. As I have stated in the past, without cash, you can't invest.
NASDAQ 800?
In November of 2000 when the NASDAQ was trading at 3000 I wrote in this column that the NASDAQ Index would fall to 1500 and I got lots of heat for saying it. Microsoft had fallen from $129 to $60 per share.
A Good Fund Manager
Every Wall Street analyst, financial planner and broker will tell you that the right way to pick a mutual fund is find a good money manager of a fund that has a long time record.Yes, I believe that too, but it is amazing that when you go back in time to see what this genius did with the mutual fund, you will find years he has had some terrible losses.
The Information Age
It is wonderful to be alive in the information age. We know in a matter of seconds the change in the value of gold in Switzerland, the death of a world leader or the birth of a peasant in Israel.
Trading For A Living - Part 1
There can't be many traders who haven't at least considered the idea of telling the boss what they think of him, throwing it all in and going off to trade the stock market for a living. It's a big risk financially, and that uncertainty is what stops most from jumping ship.
Advisory Service for You?
It depends on your level of understanding of the market and the amount of money you have.If you a sophisticated investor with a substantial amount invested you are probably already receiving more than one.
Stock Insurance
You have a lock on your house. You have a lock on your car.
Historical Briefing: Stocks, Finance and Money
The World Bank claims that some two billion of the world's citizens live on $1 per day or less! That fact absolutely shocked me. With this statistic in mind it becomes important to focus on all of the things that have served as money over the history of civilization.
Buy and Hold Investment Strategy
"Buy and hold" is one of the most heralded investment strategies promoted today. "Buy and hold" is also one of the few investment methods where you are guaranteed to lose money 2 out of every 5 years.
The Cub; II
We keep hearing about this bear market and that the bottom is "in" or "very close" so we should be invested in these bargain basement prices to take advantage of the next bull so we won't lose out on the expected huge profits.This is not a big bear market - yet.
Economists
In today's volatile and confusing stock markets everyone is searching for a guru who knows which way the market is going and when. Ask any economist and he will have an answer.
What Our Investment Advisor Wont Say Off The Bat
Most advisors will tell you they can beat the market. They may even point to years in which they did.
The Stock Market is a Roller Coaster: Prepare for the Ups and Downs
IT'S REMINISCENT OF THE OLD children's tale about an old Chinese farmer who tells his friends his story, and they enjoin with "That's good" or "That's bad" on alternating lines:Farmer: My horse ran away.Friends: That's bad.
Choosing a Stock Broker
If you were to find that you had some severe illness that required surgery, would you attempt to perform that surgery upon yourself? What if your car broke down and needed a valve job? Would you get out the Craftsman tool set you got for Christmas three years ago and start tinkering under the hood even though you know absolutely nothing about engines? Of course you wouldn't do either of these things because there are times in life when we know we must seek the assistance of a professional. So why is it that so many people try to make their own investment decisions without consulting a professional stock broker?A stock broker is a trained financial professional who knows how to watch the trends of the stock market, is kept up to date on financial developments by her brokerage firm, and knows how to make wise and sound investment decisions.
Dont Fight The Fed
One of the great truisms of Wall Street is "Don't fight the Fed". For the long term investors this has resulted in greater profits.