Overvalued & Underbought
With all the bad news that has been dumped upon the economy for some reason the stock market is going up. Why?
The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has just set up new guidelines for core earnings. No more proforma computations. You know what proforma means - the company CEO or Treasurer waves his magic wand and says this is what I expect to appear as soon as I let the genii out of the bottle. And pigs can fly. These imaginary numbers may give his company a Price/Earnings ration of 20 which is pretty good by today's standards.
Now those mean guys in Washington have said you must reevaluate your earnings but this time figure in your stock options, pension costs and any restructuring charges. Holy Cow, that makes the P/E ratio 37. And that ain't no bargain when you are buying stock. The 100 year average has run about a 14 P/E. If the company has not been paying any dividends then this is a stock that must be suspect for any long term holding.
Because of these new guidelines the entire S&P Index P/E has gone from a 33 to 49. That is much better than it was in January 2002 when it reached 69. This number makes the entire market overvalued and still leaves me with the question of how can the market advance using these high P/Es?
There are a couple of answers and neither may be the right one.
The market has become severely oversold. The bear people have been riding it down until the news media finally recognized we have a long-term bear market. There have become too many traders who think there is no bottom and are willing to sell anything and everything. Enter the trading bargain hunters. It will now be the bears turn to be punished.
It takes money to put the market up. Where is that coming from? Our white knight, Sir Greenspan, has come in with his bags of money this past week. Look past our borders and you will see stock exchanges in every major country in the world that look sicker than ours. Foreign investors want a new home for their money and it seems the U.S. market looks darn good. As that money has started buying you may begin to see pension plan and mutual fund managers coming into the market.
The talking heads on TV and radio will give many other reasons that can be fueling the market advance and they may also be correct. Our market may be overvalued as we see it, but to others it looks like a bargain. Money is always looking for the greatest return and with wire transfers billions of dollars can and does move in a matter of hours. Oversold to the foreign market traders means underbought. It seems they have put on their buying clothes and want a piece of the action as our market is headed up - at least for a while.
(c) 2005
Al Thomas' best selling book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.
More Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
Why Is The Macedonian Stock Exchange Unsuccessful?
The Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) is not operating successfully. True, some of the parameters which we use to measure the success of a stock exchange have lately improved in the MSE.
8 Penny Stocks to Avoid
There are many good penny stock investments available, which could turn a small amount of capital into a small fortune very quickly. However, to discover these you need to know what to look for and what to avoid.
Series 7 Exam
What is the Series 7 Exam? If you are looking to become a licensed Stockbroker, you need to know about the Series 7. The Series 7 is a 250 question exam that when passed, licenses you to act as a Registered Representative.
Why Change Funds?
On November 17 I bought 7 different mutual funds and went to a 100% invested position. One of the funds I bought was Robertson Stevens Information Age (RSIFX) and it has made money as have the other six.
Buy and Hold Investment Philosophy
Wall Street has been preaching the doctrine of Buy and Hold forever. The worst part about it is the small investor (and some big ones) actually believe it.
Bargain Basement - Finding Stocks That Go Up
Have you been listening to the talking heads on CNBC-TV? Or those talk radio stock experts? Getting all those good recommendations on what to buy now. Now?Those guys keep telling me the market is oversold.
The Seven Mistakes All Novice Traders Make and How to Correct Them
We learnt the following the hard way! If any of these things applies to you, don't worry - there is an easy solution!MISTAKE ONELack of Knowledge and No PlanIt amazes us that some people expect to trade the stock market successfully without any effort. Yet if they want to take up golf, for example, they will happily take some lessons or at least read a book before heading out onto the course.
Stops Make Money
During the day I watch CNBC-TV, the stock market channel. Fortunately, I keep the sound muted or I would be hollering at the dumb "experts" being interviewed.
How To Make, And Keep, Money Trading Stocks
If you are serious about making and keeping money by trading stocks, then there are three things you need to do, and do well.Money managementOrdersTrading systemMoney managementMoney management comes first.
Buying Stocks and the Importance of Correct Timing
An investor can find and research the best stock on the market, one with huge potential but if the general market indices are negative, it will most likely be the wrong time to buy. A stock with tremendous accelerating earnings, rising sales, an up-trending chart pattern and a strong industry group may sound excellent to buy but will mean absolutely nothing if the market is positioned to move in the opposite direction of your expectations.
Mutual Funds: The Modern Den of Thieves!
Mutual funds were created with the idea that one person can specialize and manage the investments of a large pool of money from multiple investors. Before the great depression mutual funds were called investment pools and mutual fund managers were called pool operators.
Forecasting the Stock Market
Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. "Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months.
Gold Fever
Right now there doesn't seem to be any "gold fever". Very few are out looking to strike it rich in this sector.
Trend Trading - Trading Stocks Using Technical Analysis and Swing Trading Strategies
Peter is a professional trader, Paul is not. Peter has a tested, proven, written trading plan that he follows each time he enters a trade, Paul does not.
Getting Even
I know there are a lot of you out there who would like to "get even" with the stock market. Many are on the diet of "I hope, I hope".
A Personal Stock Market Investment Philosophy
∙ Make every investment in the stock market a long-term investment.My Mother worked as a teller in a small bank in Dover, New Jersey.
Trading Stocks -Never Forget About A Past Trade
We all know that emotions control every decision that an investor makes in any type of money related vehicle. Whether is be the stock market, real estate, art work or antiques, emotions ultimately set the final price on both sides of the transaction.
9 Deadly Trading Mistakes!
The following are a list of nine things you want to avoid at all costs. Anyone of them can literally destroy your financial dreams and goals!1.
Market Timing?
The recent criminal fiasco in the mutual fund industry is being used by Wall Street to persuade investors that market timing is a bad thing. The late trading by Janus, Bank America and several other well known mutual funds is falsely being called market timing.
Understanding the Bulls and the Bears
If you've ever flipped on the television to CNN Financial or paged through the finance section of your local newspaper, you may have seen or heard references made to "the bulls and the bears." If you didn't know what was meant by those terms, you're about to find out.